Discuss.

A Corrupted Election / "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004"

I'm not sure I agree with one of their conclusions:

Second, in light of the charges that the 2000 election was not legitimate, the Bush/Cheney campaign would have wanted to prevail in the popular vote. If fraud was afoot, it would make sense that the president's men would steal votes in their strongholds, where the likelihood of detection is small. Lo and behold, the report provides data that strongly bolster this theory. In those precincts that went at least 80 percent for Bush, the average within-precinct-error (WPE) was a whopping 10.0—the numerical difference between the exit poll predictions and the official count. That means that in Bush strongholds, Kerry, on average, received only about two-thirds of the votes that exit polls predicted. In contrast, in Kerry strongholds, exit polls matched the official count almost exactly (an average WPE of 0.3).

If Bush supporters were (for whatever mysterious reason, for the first mysterious time) less likely to answer questions, then in strong-Republican areas I'd expect the answers to be even more skewed. So this could be seen as support for the Bush-supporters-don't-answer thesis, rather than stealing-votes-in-strong-Bush-precincts. And if that thesis gains support, then the entire fraud thesis loses support. (Note that I haven't actually sat down and read the original report and done calculations).

Other report data undermine the argument that Kerry voters were more likely to complete the exit poll interview than Bush voters. If this were the case, then one would expect that in precincts where Kerry voters predominated, the cooperation rate would be higher than in pro-Bush precincts. But in fact, the data suggest that Bush voters were slightly more likely to complete the survey: 56 percent of voters completed the survey in the Bush strongholds, while 53 percent cooperated in Kerry strongholds.

Or maybe that just proves Kerry supporters live in the city more, and city people of any political stripe are more likely to brush past strangers trying to ask them questions.

If Republican's are 5%-10% more unwilling to answer poll questions, why is that? Did the pollsters look gay?

Anyway, all things considered, I'm tending toward the vote-fraud-happened camp at this point. I think the more important issue is the inability to know - it's possible to build a much more reliable and verifiable voting system, but not enough people care, so we're doomed to the cloud of fraud for the forseeable future.

Discuss.

A Corrupted Election / "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004"

I'm not sure I agree with one of their conclusions:

Second, in light of the charges that the 2000 election was not legitimate, the Bush/Cheney campaign would have wanted to prevail in the popular vote. If fraud was afoot, it would make sense that the president's men would steal votes in their strongholds, where the likelihood of detection is small. Lo and behold, the report provides data that strongly bolster this theory. In those precincts that went at least 80 percent for Bush, the average within-precinct-error (WPE) was a whopping 10.0—the numerical difference between the exit poll predictions and the official count. That means that in Bush strongholds, Kerry, on average, received only about two-thirds of the votes that exit polls predicted. In contrast, in Kerry strongholds, exit polls matched the official count almost exactly (an average WPE of 0.3).

If Bush supporters were (for whatever mysterious reason, for the first mysterious time) less likely to answer questions, then in strong-Republican areas I'd expect the answers to be even more skewed. So this could be seen as support for the Bush-supporters-don't-answer thesis, rather than stealing-votes-in-strong-Bush-precincts. And if that thesis gains support, then the entire fraud thesis loses support. (Note that I haven't actually sat down and read the original report and done calculations).

Other report data undermine the argument that Kerry voters were more likely to complete the exit poll interview than Bush voters. If this were the case, then one would expect that in precincts where Kerry voters predominated, the cooperation rate would be higher than in pro-Bush precincts. But in fact, the data suggest that Bush voters were slightly more likely to complete the survey: 56 percent of voters completed the survey in the Bush strongholds, while 53 percent cooperated in Kerry strongholds.

Or maybe that just proves Kerry supporters live in the city more, and city people of any political stripe are more likely to brush past strangers trying to ask them questions.

If Republican's are 5%-10% more unwilling to answer poll questions, why is that? Did the pollsters look gay?

Anyway, all things considered, I'm tending toward the vote-fraud-happened camp at this point. I think the more important issue is the inability to know - it's possible to build a much more reliable and verifiable voting system, but not enough people care, so we're doomed to the cloud of fraud for the forseeable future.

(no subject)

Need to get over cold/flu (can it be flu if you're not queasytum?) so can go to doctor. No sense going to doctor all sick. Can't do anything anything if depressed. Shelves of books of projects: sitting untouched.

Every once in a while i fixate on a person and have fantasies of mutual creative endeavors. This plummets to its death, and i stop. It's easier to try to create things when you think maybe someone cares about the results. It's harder to create things when you think about the greatest works ever created and sense that they're likely sad wee attempts of no real value.

Sometimes i think the way to clean is to put the clutter item into the fireplace.

Mead is sometimes beer and sometimes wine. We are baffled.

How many days till no more shrub? When nobody in the world feels safer then, and the US is still in Iraq, and all the terrorist networks still exist, and the country is more dramatically in debt than any time in history, and foreign creditors shy away, will the end of his 2nd term be celebrated as a great success? Very likely.

My brain is too much of computer. Create story: o no, a flaw. Gandalf could have just rode the eagle and dropped the ring into the volcano, tada, end of story. Guess we can't create Lord of the Rings or the entire Tolkien mega-cult. Giant worms under the sand...right, and friction wouldn't make them entirely immobile. Can't create the Dune mega-cult.

I finally have time and ability to do world travel, and enough credit card airline miles built up for free ticket to Europe, and my desire seems to have wasted away. Why pay to go be lonely somewhere where nobody can understand me and even trying to find something to eat is embarrassing and difficult.

A 30" Apple cinema display might make it all better. Or two or three or 6 in an array.

(no subject)

Need to get over cold/flu (can it be flu if you're not queasytum?) so can go to doctor. No sense going to doctor all sick. Can't do anything anything if depressed. Shelves of books of projects: sitting untouched.

Every once in a while i fixate on a person and have fantasies of mutual creative endeavors. This plummets to its death, and i stop. It's easier to try to create things when you think maybe someone cares about the results. It's harder to create things when you think about the greatest works ever created and sense that they're likely sad wee attempts of no real value.

Sometimes i think the way to clean is to put the clutter item into the fireplace.

Mead is sometimes beer and sometimes wine. We are baffled.

How many days till no more shrub? When nobody in the world feels safer then, and the US is still in Iraq, and all the terrorist networks still exist, and the country is more dramatically in debt than any time in history, and foreign creditors shy away, will the end of his 2nd term be celebrated as a great success? Very likely.

My brain is too much of computer. Create story: o no, a flaw. Gandalf could have just rode the eagle and dropped the ring into the volcano, tada, end of story. Guess we can't create Lord of the Rings or the entire Tolkien mega-cult. Giant worms under the sand...right, and friction wouldn't make them entirely immobile. Can't create the Dune mega-cult.

I finally have time and ability to do world travel, and enough credit card airline miles built up for free ticket to Europe, and my desire seems to have wasted away. Why pay to go be lonely somewhere where nobody can understand me and even trying to find something to eat is embarrassing and difficult.

A 30" Apple cinema display might make it all better. Or two or three or 6 in an array.